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Nature Climate Change Contents: May 2017 Volume 7 Number 5 pp 305-376

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

May 2017 Volume 7, Issue 5

Editorial
Commentaries
Research Highlights
News and Views
Letters
Articles
Correction
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Nature Outlook: Animal Health
Animal and human health are closely linked. This Outlook examines how climate change is pushing diseases into formerly 'safe' regions of the world, the challenges in treating parasites, the efforts to vaccinate gorillas against Ebola and how a holistic approach to disease could further the well-being of animals.

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Editorial

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Political swings and roundabouts p305
doi:10.1038/nclimate3294
With a politically tumultuous spring and the window on keeping global average temperatures below 2 °C above preindustrial levels closing, environmental advocacy perhaps has a more important role now than ever before.

Commentaries

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Aligning agriculture and climate policy pp307 - 309
A. Chabbi, J. Lehmann, P. Ciais, H. W. Loescher, M. F. Cotrufo, A. Don, M. SanClements, L. Schipper, J. Six, P. Smith and C. Rumpel
doi:10.1038/nclimate3286
The 4‰ initiative to sequester carbon in soils has the potential to connect sustainable development goals, enhance food security and mitigate climate change by utilizing waste organic residues.

Out of the lab and into the field pp309 - 311
Dan M. Kahan and Katherine Carpenter
doi:10.1038/nclimate3283
Decision scientists have identified remedies for various cognitive biases that distort climate-change risk perceptions. Researchers must now use the same empirical methods to identify strategies for reproducing — in the tumult of the real world — results forged in the tranquillity of their labs.

The IPCC and the politics of anticipation pp311 - 313
Silke Beck and Martin Mahony
doi:10.1038/nclimate3264
In the emerging post-Paris climate governance regime, the role of scientific expertise is radically changing. The IPCC in particular may find itself in a new role, where projections of future climate function as a kind of regulatory science. This poses great challenges to conventional ideals of scientific neutrality.

Research Highlights

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Hydroclimate: Declining Arctic river icings | Glaciology: Greenland's ice loss | Communication: Real-world interventions | Environmental psychology: Conflicting climate attitudes

News and Views

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Climate-induced migration: Impacts beyond the coast pp315 - 316
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
doi:10.1038/nclimate3279
Global warming and sea-level rise will potentially impact millions of people in coastal zones. New research shows that such migration will affect all US states, including inland states which are unprepared for such an inflow of residents.
See also: Letter by Mathew E. Hauer

Global energy budget: Elusive origin of warming slowdown pp316 - 317
Richard P. Allan
doi:10.1038/nclimate3282
Global surface warming was slower than expected in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Research attributes similar events to ocean or atmosphere fluctuations, but the subtle origins of these events may elude observational detection.
See also: Letter by Christopher Hedemann et al.

Biogeochemistry: The soil carbon erosion paradox pp317 - 319
Jonathan Sanderman and Asmeret Asefaw Berhe
doi:10.1038/nclimate3281
Erosion is typically thought to degrade soil resources. However, the redistribution of soil carbon across the landscape, caused by erosion, can actually lead to a substantial sink for atmospheric CO2.
See also: Letter by Zhengang Wang et al.

Water resources: Future Nile river flows pp319 - 320
Declan Conway
doi:10.1038/nclimate3285
Climate change is projected to increase annual Nile river flow; importantly, year-to-year variability is also expected to increase markedly. More variable flows could present a challenge for consistent water resource provision in this region.
See also: Letter by Mohamed S. Siam et al.

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Letters

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Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape pp321 - 325
Mathew E. Hauer
doi:10.1038/nclimate3271
Sea-level rise will impact heavily populated coastal areas, necessitating adaptation or migration. This study considers how potential migration away from affected areas will have a broader effect on the US population landscape.
See also: News and Views by Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes pp326 - 330
Andrew Ciavarella, Peter Stott and Jason Lowe
doi:10.1038/nclimate3259
It is unclear when the risk reduction benefits of mitigation will be detectable. This study shows for many regions a 50% reduction in the probability of extreme warm periods could be seen in 20 years, indicating near-term benefits of early mitigation.

Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks pp331 - 335
Kyle C. Armour
doi:10.1038/nclimate3278
Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity differ depending on the method of calculation. This study shows estimates based on the historical energy budget are low as climate feedbacks vary with time and the bias depends on the sensitivity of the system.

The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses pp336 - 339
Christopher Hedemann, Thorsten Mauritsen, Johann Jungclaus and Jochem Marotzke
doi:10.1038/nclimate3274
Using an energy budget approach to understanding decadal temperature trends, this study highlights that observational uncertainty exceeds energy–flux deviations that affect such trends. Thus the origin of recent warming slowdown is unidentifiable.
See also: News and Views by Richard P. Allan

An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming pp340 - 344
S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, P. M. Cox, P. Friedlingstein, G. Hugelius and S. Westermann
doi:10.1038/nclimate3262
Permafrost loss can be projected by considering its distribution against warming air temperatures. Using observations to constrain loss estimates, this study investigates loss under different levels of warming.

Human-induced erosion has offset one-third of carbon emissions from land cover change pp345 - 349
Zhengang Wang, Thomas Hoffmann, Johan Six, Jed O. Kaplan, Gerard Govers, Sebastian Doetterl and Kristof Van Oost
doi:10.1038/nclimate3263
Erosion of agricultural land is estimated to have resulted in a cumulative net uptake of 78 ± 22 Pg C on land (6000 ʙᴄ–2015 ᴀᴅ), offsetting 37 ± 10% of generally recognized C emissions resulting from anthropogenic land cover change.
See also: News and Views by Jonathan Sanderman et al.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow pp350 - 354
Mohamed S. Siam and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
doi:10.1038/nclimate3273
Nile basin countries are expected to double their population by 2050. Observations and climate model projections now suggest water resources may be additionally stretched by a 50% (±35%) increase in interannual Nile flow variability in the twenty-first century.
See also: News and Views by Declan Conway

Emergent constraints on projections of declining primary production in the tropical oceans pp355 - 358
Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Philippe Ciais, Peter M. Cox, Charlotte Laufkötter, Yue Li and Roland Séférian
doi:10.1038/nclimate3265
Emergent constraints on tropical marine primary production increase confidence in a long-term decrease in primary productivity in response to rising sea surface temperatures. The most extreme projected declines in productivity are, however, unlikely.

Weakening temperature control on the interannual variations of spring carbon uptake across northern lands pp359 - 363
Shilong Piao, Zhuo Liu, Tao Wang, Shushi Peng, Philippe Ciais, Mengtian Huang, Anders Ahlstrom, John F. Burkhart, Frédéric Chevallier, Ivan A. Janssens, Su-Jong Jeong, Xin Lin, Jiafu Mao, John Miller, Anwar Mohammat, Ranga B. Myneni, Josep Peñuelas, Xiaoying Shi, Andreas Stohl, Yitong Yao, Zaichun Zhu and Pieter P. Tans
doi:10.1038/nclimate3277
Atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements at Barrow, Alaska, together with coupled atmospheric transport and terrestrial ecosystem models show a declining spring net primary productivity response to temperature at high latitudes.

Articles

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Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk pp364 - 370
Miyuki Hino, Christopher B. Field and Katharine J. Mach
doi:10.1038/nclimate3252
Managed retreat is a potentially important climate change adaptation option. In this article the drivers and outcomes of, and barriers to, 27 recent cases of managed retreat—involving the resettlement of approximately 1.3 million people—are evaluated.

Biochar built soil carbon over a decade by stabilizing rhizodeposits pp371 - 376
Zhe (Han) Weng, Lukas Van Zwieten, Bhupinder Pal Singh, Ehsan Tavakkoli, Stephen Joseph, Lynne M. Macdonald, Terry J. Rose, Michael T. Rose, Stephen W. L. Kimber, Stephen Morris, Daniel Cozzolino, Joyce R. Araujo, Braulio S. Archanjo and Annette Cowie
doi:10.1038/nclimate3276
The long-term efficacy of biochar as a means of increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) remains underexplored. Research now shows that 8.5 years after biochar was added to a subtropical soil the formation of microaggregates stabilized and increased SOC.

Correction

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Correction: Expanding research views p376
doi:10.1038/nclimate3289

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